China is struggling to contain the Fallout from suddenly lifting the world's most Draconian pandemic control restrictions after three years of rigid enforcement with no exit strategy or proper messaging in place to prepare the public the reopening has been chaotic with medicine in short supply morgs swamped and hospitals overwhelmed leaving the nation in a crisis this time of its own making what exactly went wrong and how bad is it Beyond covert what's next for China in terms of its economic recovery and the direction of the Communist Party leadership to break it all down for us.
We have veteran journalist Wang Xiang Wei former South China Morning Post editor-in-chief and now an academic based in Hong Kong China have three years to learn from the reopening chaos in other countries but in the end it didn't learn anything in this episode of talking post one of the most credible and reliable China experts out there gives us an Insider's perspective on what is really happening in a country that many still cannot understand
I want to explain to them that your I consider youba real china expert we have a lot of Pretenders to the throne being trotted out in the western media saying all kinds of things about China you in particular stand out as somebody who's a China hand who gives us an Insider's perspective but you're not an apologist for China you're somebody who explains China right and that comes to when it comes to negative stuff you you report problems with China but it's all fact-based rather than opinions and and feelings so on that happy note let's start with what's happening in China the whole whole world is talking about it they've pivoted away from this suddenly from the zero covet strategy and uh it seems to be chaos uh Panic chaos confusion people flooding hospitals morgues can you give us a true picture of what's happening on the ground right now okay the majority of the population in major cities like Beijing Shanghai Guangzhou uh you name it Wuhan I think.
They have achieved uh you know they hurt immunity I think over I think the latest figures I saw that over 90 percent of the population in Beijing were already infected so I think the things have returned to normal in major cities uh you know one you know but you know from the news and from through my conversation with my friends and the family in Beijing and also the the most notorious traffic jams in the major cities are back is a sign of life however now the virus is spreading in the rural areas in the vast rural areas where I don't know over 600 700 million.
Farmers live you know the rural areas are the places where China's Public Health infrastructure is the is the weakest and now we have the Chinese New Year coming on and then there will be a massive migration of of Migrant laborers returning to home so I think let's say the worst in the major cities is over and I think the worst is yet to come in the rural areas I think you know we still need to keep a very close eye on those developments rural areas I mean you'll also be talking about a lot of elderly people right yeah because migrant workers the younger generation all moves to the city to work so the vaccination rate for among the elderly is a bit problematic yeah it is.
I mean it's you know now with the benefit of hindsight right I think you know I wrote about this in one of my columns I think from the very beginning that the the National Health commission advice to China's leaders very wrongly I think from the very beginning when China roll outs the vaccines you know its own vaccines the advice from the National Health commission was that the vaccines were only suitable for people at the age from the age of 18 to 59 so the message was then that's the vaccines were not very good for anybody over 60and below 18.
I think if you talk about I mean there have been so many stories about the uh vaccine hesitancy among the elderly in China over the past few years I mean I think if we look back I think the bad advice from the very beginning from the National Health commission so the seed of Doubt among the elderly and so from then on it's very difficult for China's for China to persuade the elderly to to receive vaccinations messaging you you talked about that that is a problem with the messaging considering that the majority of the population in China they believe what they hear on state media because that's the only access to real media that they have right yeah so given that what I wanted to ask you was how much of it is actually uh disease driven where people are genuinely in a Health crisis when they're flooding hospitals and yeah and you know flocking to uh doctors and overwhelming the system yeah and how much of it is to you can blame it on the fact that for three years you told this population that this virus was dangerous yeah dangerous dangerous dangerous it's deadly you have to be careful you have to lock down you have to be isolated you have to be treated like this right and.
Then all of a sudden without a road map without a proper timetable there was a sudden shifting away from this whole thing and then opening up so uh people going to hospitals how much can you blame them if it's just mild symptoms because they believe that it's deadly they've been told it's deadly and all of a sudden it's free for all I know I know I mean you know I I'm very upset about this you know let me answer this question of yours which is very important in the following ways first I wasn't surprised at all I mean because you know China should have opened in summer what I was surprised that is China has decided to reopen in the middle of winter when the raspberry diseases Peak usually Peak why China I mean did that now in the past few days the state media the official epidemiologists in China sort of started.
To Define this line they try to put a positive Spin and saying that you know this sudden reopening was well planned well thought out but in fact as I have written as scmp has written as as all the overseas media reports have written that this reopening was not planned was a sudden decision and then they did not have Exit Plan from the zero covert which I was again very surprised with you know we can talk about that later the end result is that China was unprepared totally for the reopening I let me give you example that from the very first day of the reopening early December that there was a widespread shortage of colds and fever medicine in China you have we have to put this into context that China is one of the world's major producers of those kind of medicine and then so why there was a sudden shortage is because until the reopening that the authorities placed very strict restrictions on sale of fever medicine at at the pharmacies because at that time that the idea was to implement the zero covert policy so the authorities will not allow Ordinary People to self isolate at home so if you I mean the idea was if you develop a fever you.
Should have yourself tested and then be quarantined for a month or 20 days so if you go at that time if you went to a pharmacy and you wanted to buy fever medicine you have to fill in lots of detailed informations and then you have to have yourself tested that day and the following day otherwise your health codes uh will be will be blacklisted then you couldn't go anywhere.
So the result is that most of the pharmacies in China sort of of course sort of stocked very few fever medicine and then because of the poetry demands from the pharmacies and then China's pharmaceutical companies have stopped producing the fever medicine I mean because there was no demand and then all of a sudden when China decided to reopen allow people to sell medicate and self-isolate at home.
There was a huge shortage of fever medicine now the government is ordering every pharmaceutical company to ramp up production 24 7. and then we'll come back to the question you know if China decided to reopen why China didn't plan for that and the second point I'm going to make is the Chinese government all this party is always proud of their capabilities to prepare for the rainy day you know ever since.
Our president Xi Jinping came to power he often made the point that China every official should have what he called the bottom line thinking which basically means preparing for the worst case scenario and then he often urged officials to to God against the threats of Black Swan all gray rhinos this pandemic is a combination of a Black Swan and gray Rhino and in the end there was no preparation having inside that you know as seen in other countries right the reopening from kovitz definitely will leave some chaos now we are talking about the population 1.4 billion no matter how prepared China was the opening will lead to chaos but I want to stress that if China did have a plan you know we wouldn't have seen this uh harrowing chaos of sort of elderly dying in the hospitals uh having the Emergency
Services swamped and then the mocks overflown with our bodies third point I want to make is is communication you see you and I were in the Communication business I've been you know I shake my head at China's communication all the time yeah that's why they lose their audience the message absolutely even if China decided to reopen in the middle of the winter I mean there were a lot of things that authorities should have done to mitigate this you know in terms of messaging you know for instance before they reopen you know what they should have done is that they shouldn't have China's top epidemiologists on TV right sort of explaining why China was reopening right and then you know how the ordinary people should self-medicate should self-isolate I think that should happen before their reopening.
Now it is the epidemiologists and China's officials are doing that now I think it was too late and then secondly I still find it difficult to understand why China has refused the offers of vaccines from U.S and from Europe right I mean over the past three years they always say they want to place People's Health First they want to place the people's lives first and now I think what China should have done is to accept any help from International Community I mean that's what China did in the first two years China offers billions billions of dozens of vaccines to developing countries and and and China has learned a lot of good well and now China is in trouble.
I mean you know obviously but because of national pride or because of ideology or because of other things they are you know at the very beginning they refused but now I before I came on your show that the Pfizer announced that now they were going to uh offer the uh you know their emergency drug tax love it uh to Chinese manufacturers and now they're going to mass produce that I think this is something that China should have done and thirdly I think in terms of messaging again on communication I think the Chinese officials should have shared more information with the International.
Community I mean you know with the who I mean the who Secretary General made the point that China was Under report you know what is happening in China I mean shows the stuff that any responsible country should have done and then why China did not do it I mean that's a very interesting point that we need to think about as I said earlier you know Xi Jinping has been saying and urging that every official to prepare for the worst case scenario in the end we did not see a plan and the worst case scenario happened I think you know now it's happened right but
It's still very important for the Chinese authorities and and to reflect and review what seriously went wrong a few factors have contributed to the uh sudden reopening one is that you know I flew to Hong Kong on November 27th that was a very tense moment in China because a massive students protests started over that weekend on Friday Saturday Sunday was the peak and then on Monday it dialed down I think there were so many reports about some students in Shanghai calling from calling on Top China China to step down but that was only the minority most of the students were angry with the zero coffee policies and then died and that really
Made to China's leaders very much nervous so once the students sort of on the streets so what the top leaders did was to quickly sort of uh decided to uh make John's funeral the highest level right you know I was in Beijing and I saw Xi Jinping LED his wife and and all of the China's top leaders in Beijing to uh receiving the plane which carried John's body and and you know like standing in the freezing cold and and and in in the first seven days of John stat which would which is very important uh according to the China's custom that you know she mentioned John's Legacy and and saying he will you know he will follow his legacy and all that I think he's he's trying to to he was trying to tell the students and the rest of the population that he will make John's funeral you know as I'm president on an unprecedented level so you students didn't have to come out on the streets anymore and and and then so and then he will have to make a quick decision.
On reopening so now according to the reports being uh recently filed it turned out that President XI chaired a polar Bureau meeting on the 6th of December on reopening and then he flew out of the country to react for four days so which means he has a very short period of window that he'll have to make a decision to reopen them because to calm the students to calm the rest of the population and that happened right but the protests or were merely the trigger.
I think the underlying reasons is I think by that time China's top leaders finally realized magnitude of the devastating impacts of the zero covered policies on the Chinese economy now again back on messaging if the Chinese leaders came out and told us you and I and the rest of the population why you know what I have told you what you and I have discussed I think people would have understood you know they would you know and and the International Community would have understood but still they still sort of sort of go on with this line ridiculous line that this reopening was well thought out well planned in the middle of winter and then this official epidemiologist who are advises the National Health commission said you know like give an interview on CCTV uh you know he was trying to argue that China reopened it because recently most of the elderly uh most of the elderly.
People received a vaccination so they want to reopen in the winter so that you know right now the efficacy of their vaccine was very strong so if they decided to wait for a few months the efficacy you know would lessen I you know I would I find that in you know ridiculous I find that very sort of ridiculous you know if you just purely on the sake of argument right yes it is important for for for China to make sure that the elderly received the proper vaccinations uh you know that efficacy is still very strong however I mean if you delay this and then you can continue to give
Boosters to the to the elderly people so that shouldn't be counted as a factor to reopen in the middle of winter you know we can talk about this uh for hours you know I you know I'm I'm very upset that China have three years to learn from the reopening chaos in in in other countries yes but in the end it didn't learn anything I mean why is that that's that really uh that really makes me very very upset it really begs the question is it the three years of lockdown three years of brutal enforcement of of covet restrictions and the Carnage the economy the social Carnage everything else and now you almost seem to be back to square one.
So is it really was it worth it yeah I London that's a very good question you know what I can tell you is this is that in the first two years China did a a fantastic job keeping the virus at Bay because China's economy was the first major economy to reopen and then China posted a very strong growth in 2020 slightly slower growth in 2021 but was still very healthy I think that you know I have no argument at all with I mean I have no uh just sort of a dispute with this argument that China.
Did a fantastic job I agree you know I think the Chinese officials always use that line to counter argue against those sort of people who suggested now you know China is it you know did such a terrible job on reopening it was a great takeoff and a great flight but yeah they can't stick The Landing yeah yeah I mean and then yeah I mean that's what I want to say is that the virus has mutators the virus have has changed and the people's View and the thinking on a virus has also changed but however,
China's zero policies have not changed there was no Exit Plan you know the economic Carnage that covet has wrought from China there's no denying it no and we will be counting the cost in the months to come and even years to come of how much damage it has done but going back to the protests again uh there's no doubt that that also played a role in influencing the Chinese Leader's Minds yeah about uh stepping back right from the brink what I do want to ask is if you you must have surely seen the Western media coverage the Anglo-Saxon media mainstream media in particular I mean it was breathless coverage about these protests now signal the downfall of them from this party.
Breathless almost hopeful reporting that can are we finally seeing the end yeah were we even close to it were they way no no no no no I mean I mean because ever since the students protest started on November 25th and then some overseas media have quickly labeled this as a white paper blank paper A4 paper Revolution and I made that point very early on in one of my columns I said you know first of all it was not a revolution I mean There Was You know the you know there was the students protest were very peaceful and for the majority of the student protesters they were angry with the excessive zero covered policies you know I mean and then of course there were protesters in Shanghai and in Beijing what who were also not very happy with the governance of China but I think the majority of the people just so happy to see the the cover zero.
Policies lifted and I think by you see what happens is that over the past three years that all this economic hardship the hiring reports all this suffering what China's own doing right but the Chinese authorities were so eager to shift the blame to someone else and then the those Western media reports which describe this protest as a white paper Revolution played right into the hands of Chinese authorities Now Chinese authorities started to say you know there must be a hostile foreign forces.
Behind this in fact there was none they were just and then it's an outpouring of frustration by the populations yes anger out out outpouring frustration and anger about the excessive zero covered policies I mean of course every protest there is you know is is political but on this seriously it's according to my observation and my own observation and and through talking to people in China I mean this was not politically motivating but describing that in fact as I said earlier played into the hands of the Chinese government and also that also solves the misunderstanding the uh some overseas media have about China
At the after the weekend reports after the weekend protests I mean there were serious concerns in the overseas media whether those students will be jailed or or anything like that it turned out that you know only a few student leaders were asked by the police to the police station and that's you know the you know the police just asked them some questions and and then they were released sure but there was an interesting takeaway from all these protests at the end in president XI jinping's uh New Year message where he acknowledged that there are differing views I mean that's hugely significant.
Yeah in terms of how rare that kind of admission is right so uh moving on from all this after the lessons of covert after the Carnage economic and social Carnage that covet has wrought amid all the geopolitics right and China's problems now of about being shut out from the Supply Chain by the US and its allies the cementing of the leadership reshuffle which is coming up now with the two sessions in March what's next for China in terms of you know you've been covering for 30 years China's rise yeah right and uh the west and it's uh it's it's moved to check that rise to curb that rise yeah is the rise over is the rice very much in stride it's just taking a little bit of a stumble and it's going to carry on okay I I think that's a very interesting question and I think China's rise would continue that's the first point.
I'm gonna make the second point was that now she has secured uh his party Chief position for his third term now that he has packed his leadership lineup with his allies and I think the word is that because the economy is so badly hit by the three years of zero coffee policies I think the word is that the Chinese government is going to focus on growing the economy in the next years.
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