Welcome to this edition of World at War the battle for Taiwan has the potential to define the world order of the 21st Century, when Parks Americana continue to rain or will the world transition to a new order under Park Seneca because remember the American policy for the last decade has been about the containment of China.
The Taiwan war will pit the two biggest superpowers of our time, with the use of weapons and technology, unlike any that we've witnessed so far but at what point and under what circumstances will China actually attack Taiwan? This is a question that has gripped military armless and policy makers in Washington China began this year with yet another incident of 57 of its war planes testing taiwan's air defense, preparedness by flying dangerously close to the Taiwanese airspace.
The Chinese warplanes included the likes of the j-10 the j11 the j16 the su-30 the H6 bombers besides other early warning and reconnaissance aircraft, for its part Taiwan responded by putting its Naval vessels it's fighting dead and lambdas resolved systems on high alert just three days prior to that the American Destroyer the USS Chung Hoon of the U.S Navy seventh fleet transited through the Pavan Strait as part of the freedom of navigation operations Nation with every passing month a conflict in the Taiwan Strait appears more and more imminent.
But have will a Chinese invasion of Taiwan play out an American Think Tank the center for strategic and International Studies this week created a stir, in its war game simulation it concluded that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would most probably fail if the United States along with its close Ally Japan were to get involved leaving everyone the American Think Tank predicts that The Invasion would happen in 2026.
A total of 24 different War gaming scenarios were tested China would begin The Invasion with the heavy bombardment to destroy tavon's air and Naval bases the Chinese Navy would then try to encircle the Taiwanese Island and with big inferring a landing force of thousands of pla soldiers simultaneously with the missile blades China would Target the American air bases in Japan and even as far as Guam two American aircraft carriers along with at least about 20 other destroyers and cruisers of the Americans would be sung
But the Americans would counter-attack with their submarines fighter jets and bombers along with the Japanese forces to the Chinese amphibious assault in the end the American think tank is predicted that China's Invasion would be repulsed and Taiwan will remain autonomous but Global times the Chinese mouthpiece has rubbished these war game simulations as nothing more than fear-mongering propaganda by the U.S military industrial complex to sell more weapons to American Allies in the region but what is also interesting to note is that the conclusions of the American Think Tank are in stark contrast to the war gaming assessments that have been made by the Pentagon in recent years since 2020 the Pentagon has admitted that China has already amassed enough ballistic and Hypersonic missiles that every U.S base and American carrier battle group operating in the indo-pacific command would be vulnerable to Chinese missile strikes including the Pacific island of Guam where America has stationed its strategic bombers such as the B2 and B-52 which are now considered to be in the crosshairs of the Chinese.
Missiles General Mark milley the American chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff has admitted to the changing Power Balance in the Pacific Ocean if you look at again 40 years ago they had zero satellites look at what they've got today they had no icbms look at what they've got today they had no nuclear weapons look what they got today they have no fourth or fifth generation Fighters or even more advanced Fighters back then look what they got today they
Had no Navy look what they have todaythey had no sub force look what they have today so if you look at the total totality this test that occurred a couple weeks ago is only one of a much much broader picture of a military capability with respect to the Chinese that is very very significant we're witnessing in my view we're witnessing one of the largest shifts in global geostrategic power according to Admiral Philip Davidson the former Chief of the U.S indo-pacific command 2026 is the year where the Chinese military buildup will overmatch the American presence in the Pacific region but China may not wait that long to deter direct involvement by the,
United States China would not even need to eclipse the American defense capabilities in the Pacific some military analysts predict that China might State a showdown as early as 2024.
While others believe that Xi Jinping will invade into Taiwan in 2027. but what the military analysts are getting wrong is that they are relying only on defense capabilities to predict the impending Flashpoint in the Taiwan Strait as things done tavons is the Hub of nearly about 90 percent of the manufacturing capacity for the world's most advanced semiconductors these semiconductor chips which Tavon manufactures are so crucial that any disruption in their production will cause a global meltdown and it will debilitate the Chinese economy
Since 2014 China has been the biggest importer of Taiwan semiconductors as of 2021 China imported semiconductors to the tune of a staggering 430 billion dollars of which 36 percent came from Taiwan type B refers to its semiconductor manufacturing foundries as its silicon Shield.
To break away from the tavanese Stranglehold on semiconductors China in December 2022 announced an investment of one trillion Yuan the equivalent of 143 billion dollars for setting up high-end chip manufacturing plans on the Chinese mainland for its part the United States is also announced an investment of about 200 billion dollars to ramp up its domestic semiconductor production in America more than any other territory Taiwan recognizes that semiconductor chips don't just bring Financial Security to the island but also guarantee its National Security.
So contrary to what the military generals are predicting it won't be China's military overmatch of the United States but rather China's ability to break its dependence on the Taiwanese semiconductor chips that will dictate the timelines of a war in the Taiwan Strait.
There are reports in the American Media that Russian Artillery fire is down by almost about 75 percent but how true are these reports as similar starts assessments about Russia's declining Arsenal have been doing the rounds since August last year on the battlefield though Russia has claimed to capture the town of solidar what impact will this have on the theater's war in Ukraine our next report gets more details the cruel winter has frozen the battle lines but the ferocity of the war has not abated this video posted by the Ukrainian defense ministry will give you a glimpse of what is unfolding in the battle for bakmut for months the Russian mercenary Wagner group has been Relentless in its offensive to capture the city but the dogged Ukrainian defense fortified by Western weapons has refused to break but in nearby solidar Moscow has managed to ask the defending Ukrainian forces from the salt mine City.
The fighting for the small but strategic town has been described as one of the bloodiest in the war barely any walls in solidar are said to be standing on the evening of January 12th.
The Liberation of Soledad was completed the town is important for continuing the Russian Advance on the donets axis has disputed the Russian claims according to the Ukrainian president Kiev is fighting back firmly against the Russian Onslaught today I would like to specifically mention the paratroopers from the 77th separate Airborne Brigade that together with the fighters from the 46 separate Airborne Brigade held their position in solidar and inflicted significant losses on the enemy curiously reports have emerged in the American Media that Russia's artillery fire is dramatically down by almost 75 percent in comparison to its wartime high on an average Russia was estimated to have been firing 20 000 shells per day in the battlefield.
Ukraine could respond by an average of 7,000 artillery shells per day it is not possible to independently verify the claims of the Russian Artillery firing fewer shells but what is clear is that both Russia and the West have ordered their respective defense manufacturing companies to crank up production but bear in mind the Ukraine war is not a traditional contest of artillery guns it is electronic warfare with the use of Radars Jammers low-cost drones and surveillance satellites which will ultimately decide the winner and Ukraine with the use of Western weapons appear to have the technological advantage in its counter-offensive in the bitter fighting during the winter has barely managed to push Russia back democracy crumbles not because of an external threat but often due to internal Rifts where containing parties seek to subvert the institutions of a democracy.
On the 8th of January thousands of Jar bolsonaro supporters stormed into the presidential Palace the Congress and also the Brazilian Supreme Court there was writing on the streets wrapped in the Brazilian floods bolsonaro supporters were demanding for freedom and democracy but what did these protesters actually want and why is this incident in Brazil brought back the bitter memories of the Capitol Hill Insurrection by the Trump supporters 8th of January 2023 will go down as a dark day in Brazilian history thousands of jair bolsonaro supporters who proudly carried the Brazilian flank and chanted the slogans freedom and democracy stormed the Brazilian Parliament.
This was no ordinary protest it was an attempt to capture the seat of power in Brazil protesters had climbed Atop The Parliament building clashed the riot police tear gas was locked helicopters hovered in the sky hundreds of bolsonaro supporters who had come to occupy the parliament were handcuffed and arrested but this was just the beginning of the insurrection the Brazilian flag has the words order and Progress written on it but what played out at the presidential Palace was complete disorder and the subversion of law.
The palace was once sucked Furniture broken paintings and murals disfigured the protesters then turned their attention to the Brazilian Supreme Court they smashed their way inside the building as the outnumbered police lost complete control of the situation president Lula da Silva who had just been inaugurated on the 1st of January and who was out of the capital at the time of the Insurrection dubbed this unattempted couples.
They were shouting for a coup this was the only thing one could hear that they were shouting for a coup when the former president of the Republic left office without a Handover and when the Vice President Gerald alkman made a statement on television they started to attack generals and attacked the vice president by calling him a coward and that he had betrayed the whole movement.
Eventually the anti-right police managed to bring the situation under control tent pitched by bolsonaro supporters were dismantled but curiously though jaid bolsonaro himself was not present in the country when his supporters vandalized the government buildings he posted this picture of himself in Florida United States where he was admitted in a hospital due to abdominal pain bolsonaro has often been described as a trump of the tropics the attack on state institutions by his supporters has been compared to the 6th of January Capitol Hill riots.
When Donald Trump supporters had stoned the Congress just like bolsonaro supporters Trump's supporters too wanted to overturn the results of an election but the political turmoil in Brazil has not ended yet we'll fight again we'll rest and prepare for the new fight because if they think they are going to intimidate us with that they are completely wrong at the moment Brazil is a divided nation the Tremors of the October presidential election which Lula won with a very slender margin haven't subsided yet bolsonaro has not even conceded the election and continues to insist that the results were stolen from them six people including a police officer were wounded in a knife attack in central Paris of the enjoyed one person is said to have suffered some Grievous injuries.
The early morning attack took place at the busy garage railway station now responding swiftly the police is reported to have shot the unidentified attackers several times the motive of the attack has still not been established an export gets you the details girden ORD train station is one of the busiest commuter stations in Paris servicing about seven hundred thousand passengers every single day it links the French Capital with London Brussels and other North European cities on Wednesday morning though an Airy calm had engulfed the station dozens of police officers were huddled nearby the Eurostar terminal entrance and the area was cordoned off for the public.
The reason an unprovoked knife attack during the early morning Rush Hour the deadly attack led to Serious disruptions in train services along with the Parisian mayor Anne Hidalgo interior Minister Gerald darminen rushed to the spot at 6 42 am an extremely threatening individuals started attacking people outside and then inside the guardianod station and at 6 43 he was neutralized by the police officers two officers shot three times and managed to neutralize the threatening individual who managed to injure six people one more severely even though he is not in a life-threatening condition.
He is in hospital among the six injured there is a police border officer without the extremely rapid intervention there would surely have been deaths the identity of the attacker who is said to be in his 30s has not been disclosed and the motive at the moment is unclear according to eyewitnesses the suspect did not say anything during the assault any extremist links have not been discovered by the investigators so far shot in the chest by the police the assailant is said to be between life and death in hospital curiously though the case is being investigated not as a terror attack but as an act of crime just last month a 69 year old gunman William Mallet in a racist hate crime opened indiscriminate fire and killed three Kurds at a Kurdish Community Center in the heart of the French Capital Paris.
What is interesting to note is that the site of the December attack is not far from the garden ORD railway station the French policymakers have an unenviable task of addressing the issue of identity race and culture which have continued to fester and breed hatred and violence you know the tigray rebels are now surrendering their heavy weapons to the Ethiopian federal government.
The surrender weapons were Central to the ceasefire deal that was signed in November the restoration of essential Services the resumption of humanitarian Aid and the withdrawal of Eritrean troops are other key elements of this peace deal the conflict remember has dragged on for over two years in Northern Ethiopia thousands been killed Millions have been displaced and this war in Northern Ethiopia has been described as one of the deadliest conflicts of the 21st Century but does the surrender of weapons by the tigrained forces mean that peace will finally Prevail in Ethiopia nothing broke out in November 2020.
When prime minister Avi Ahmed deployed the Ethiopian Army in the Tigre province in a bid to crush the Rebellion by the tigraine leaders who he claimed had challenged his authority for months in addition to this he also accused them of attacking Federal military bases as a result of the blockade tigray in Northern Ethiopia was cut off from the outside world since mid-2021.
The exact death toll from the brutal two-year conflict Still Remains unknown primarily because of the stringent media restrictions a breakthrough was achieved on the 2nd of November last year in Pretoria the administrative capital of South Africa.
When The War insides formally agreed to a ceasefire deal as a part of an African union-led peace process today if the beginning of a new town for Ethiopia for the Horn of Africa and indeed for Africa as a whole two parties in the Ethiopian conflict of formerly agreed to the association of hostilities the Cornerstone of the deal was the demobilization of the tigraine forces are the key elements included the restoration of federal Authority in Tigre region resumption of essential services unhindered access to humanitarian supplies and protection of civilians especially women children and other vulnerable groups honoring the deal to grain forces began to hand over their heavy weapons to the federal army the complete surrender of weapons is expected to happen until the end of January.
Since the signing of the November peace deal the fighting has largely stopped Rebels claim that they have disengaged 65 percent of their fighters from the front lines Tigre people's Liberation for unspokesperson guitar chukere tweeted his hope and expectation but there is one major flaw in the ceasefire deal which may potentially derail the peace process Eritrea which supported the Ethiopian Army in the conflict has chosen not to participate in the Pretoria talks and Asmara has for now declined to comment on whether the Eritrean soldiers.
Will leave the Tigre province more than 2 million Ethiopians have been displaced in the conflict so far hundreds of thousands of others are living in near famine-like conditions but will the surrender of Arms by the tigrain forces in the Bloodshed at this moment there are few who are willing to stick their neck out to say that peace will prevail in Ethiopia.
That marks the end of my blog thanks for reaching this far. Follow me for more.
https://youtu.be/MRMYmNfVQ0k
No comments:
Post a Comment